I think seed accounts are going to sell out within an hour of the sale opening, while paid accounts start coming in strong, tapering off after the burst, and then increasing steadily over the next 12 hours. After the second seed account sale -- which I think is going to sell out even faster than the first, say within 45 minutes -- we'll get another big burst of paid accounts (for everyone who was trying to get a seed account and didn't make it in time), and I think the rush to create paid accounts is going to taper off within five or so days. /end speculation
Drama: I don't know! I haven't seen enough drama to be able to guess. I would imagine that a lot of people are going to be like me: surrounded by squee that builds on itself. :) However, some people will be annoyed, and there will be internal drama of the "WTF, this place was supposed to supply free naked massage therapists and bacon -- where the hell's my bacon?" type. Some people will also pitch fits about seed accounts, and you'll see people saying that since they couldn't get a seed account, they're not going to use DW at all (and then turn right around and create an account, or be posting from a free or even paid account when they say it.)
However, I think the full "let's all move in" rush is going to be at least a month in the making. People will want to import stuff and the importer will get backed up; people will have lots of style tweaks they want to make (but I anticipate getting quite a few more styles within a week or two of open beta). Comms will be springing up like bunnies for at least the first month, with the bulk of them happening right at open beta opening, and a great deal of them happening in the week or so after, tapering to a "normal" level the week after that.
Last but not least, I'm going to have to take bets on how many dreamsheep will get added to the flock in the month after open beta. :D :D :D I think I might have to do some kind of sheep-creating contest. :D
Wild speculation!
I think seed accounts are going to sell out within an hour of the sale opening, while paid accounts start coming in strong, tapering off after the burst, and then increasing steadily over the next 12 hours. After the second seed account sale -- which I think is going to sell out even faster than the first, say within 45 minutes -- we'll get another big burst of paid accounts (for everyone who was trying to get a seed account and didn't make it in time), and I think the rush to create paid accounts is going to taper off within five or so days. /end speculation
Drama: I don't know! I haven't seen enough drama to be able to guess. I would imagine that a lot of people are going to be like me: surrounded by squee that builds on itself. :) However, some people will be annoyed, and there will be internal drama of the "WTF, this place was supposed to supply free naked massage therapists and bacon -- where the hell's my bacon?" type. Some people will also pitch fits about seed accounts, and you'll see people saying that since they couldn't get a seed account, they're not going to use DW at all (and then turn right around and create an account, or be posting from a free or even paid account when they say it.)
However, I think the full "let's all move in" rush is going to be at least a month in the making. People will want to import stuff and the importer will get backed up; people will have lots of style tweaks they want to make (but I anticipate getting quite a few more styles within a week or two of open beta). Comms will be springing up like bunnies for at least the first month, with the bulk of them happening right at open beta opening, and a great deal of them happening in the week or so after, tapering to a "normal" level the week after that.
Last but not least, I'm going to have to take bets on how many